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By Don Lee, Los Angeles Times

More than four years after the sector’s initial collapse, housing has become the economy’s
silent killer. But Obama, in unveiling his proposed $447‐billion package, said little more on
the issue than that he would help ‘responsible homeowners’ refinance their mortgages.
President Obama’s new jobs‐creation plan all but ignores
what many economists see as the single biggest problem in the stalling economy: the
continuing depression in the housing market.
Home sales, prices and construction have been bad and have been getting worse for so long
that Washington and many Americans have grown numb to the problem.
But dig below the surface and housing turns out to be a root cause of many of the other
problems that are getting more attention — including the high level of unemployment that
Obama focused on in his speech Thursday to Congress.
“That’s probably the biggest missing ingredient here,” economist Mark Zandi said after
reviewing Obama’s proposed $447‐billion package of tax cuts and infrastructure spending.
More than four years after the sector’s initial collapse, housing has become the economy’s
silent killer.
With about one‐fourth of all houses in the United States in foreclosure or still underwater
— their mortgages exceeding their market price — millions of Americans face such severe
financial problems that they cannot begin to resume their normal roles as consumers, move
to new jobs or finance their small businesses.
Many have little prospect of regaining their lost financial security. The housing bust wiped
out more than half the $13.5 trillion that homeowners had in equity in early 2006,
according to Federal Reserve data.
In addition, the near‐halt to construction of new housing has left several million once wellpaid
workers — many of them with advanced skills and years of experience — either
unemployed or just getting by with lower‐wage part‐time work.
Like the troubled homeowners, most of these workers face long odds against recovering
their old middle‐class lives unless the industry revives.
As for financial institutions, billions of dollars in bad mortgages have become an albatross
that undermines lenders’ basic soundness and discourages new lending for almost any
purpose. Weighed down by steep losses in its home‐lending unit, Bank of America is
preparing to cut 40,000 or more jobs nationwide.
The direct and indirect ties between housing and businesses of almost all kinds are a big
reason for the overall lack of economic growth and high unemployment. For makers of
building materials, producers of furniture and kitchen appliances and even for grass seed
suppliers, the ongoing devastation of the housing market means they also have little reason
to invest in expanding operations or hiring new workers.
Coming out of the deep recession of the early 1980s, new‐home construction roared back
to life — propelling the economy forward and creating 9% of the new jobs in the first year
of recovery. This time around, construction accounted for 93% of the net decline in
employment.
“Housing — it’s not the American dream, it’s the nightmare,” says Karl E. Case, co‐founder
of the Case‐Shiller home‐price index. The latest reading of the index, which calculates price
changes for the U.S., fell 4.5% in June year‐over‐year and is down 32% from five years
earlier.
Some economists and political leaders argue that Americans over‐invested in housing and
should learn to live with lower levels of homeownership.
But regardless of the merits of this point of view, the nation has committed itself to housing
as a major driver of the economy over many decades. Reversing that commitment also
would take decades and could inflict damage on individuals and the nation that could last a
generation or more.
It wasn’t supposed to be like this.
Severe as the housing collapse was, basic economics said that forces were supposed to kick
in that would start clearing away the wreckage and begin the process of recovery. The
plunge in home prices, combined with historically low mortgage rates, was supposed to
pump up sales.
Yet the housing problem shows very few signs of curing itself. Nor has the broader
economy grown despite the real estate slump, as some economists and policymakers had
hoped.
The health of the housing market is a key element in determining the confidence and
spending of consumers, more so than stock prices, because homes are more broadly held
by the public. Celia Chen, a housing expert at Moody’s Analytics, estimates the economy has
lost $360 billion in consumer spending since the recession — the equivalent of a year’s
worth of new‐car sales in the U.S.
So it came as a bit of a surprise to many that Obama, in unveiling his jobs‐creation package,
said little more on the housing issue than that he would help “responsible homeowners”
refinance their mortgages.
The plan offers no new measures to give relief to several million borrowers in foreclosure
or seriously behind on their loans. And there was no mention of such ideas, backed by some
economists and community groups, to convert empty homes into rentals or offer principal
reductions on a broader scale.
Obama’s reluctance may reflect concerns about the prospects for a political donnybrook
and potentially thorny issues over helping borrowers who got in over their heads during
the housing bubble. And the White House may be betting that if it can speed up hiring and
growth in the broader economy through its plan, then housing will come along.
That “was the original hope of the economic team” with the $787‐billion Recovery Act
stimulus launched in early 2009, said Robert Shapiro, a Washington consultant and
economic advisor in the Clinton administration.
Shapiro, however, has advocated a government loan program to help clear the pipeline of
foreclosures and the broader so‐called shadow inventory that are dragging down home
prices.
“We bailed out banks,” he said. “This is bailing out homeowners.”
So far, Washington’s record of dealing with troubled mortgages is not encouraging. The
government’s main refinancing program has helped about 838,000 borrowers, much less
than expected given the estimated 4 million homeowners who are still eligible. Its loan modification
program for distressed borrowers has proved even more disappointing.
As for the private sector, the legal and economic mechanisms that are supposed to force a
solution — such as foreclosures and renegotiated deals — also have been largely
ineffective.
“The big, big question is, how much inventory are banks sitting on?” said Michael Bates, a
broker at 360 Realty in Beverly Hills who specializes in distressed properties. “I’m working
with one lender that has 10 listings, but only three are active. The [other] seven are being
prepared, but they won’t give me the green light” to show them. Bates doesn’t know why,
and the lender won’t say.
The system seems stuck, allowing the pain to continue and the damage to spread.
In southeast Michigan, the auto industry has come back. But the value of Larry Nutson’s
home hasn’t.
Nutson figures he owes as much as $250,000 more on his mortgage than his 3,750‐squarefoot
home is currently worth. He has spent months trying to persuade his lender to lower
his interest rate of 6.625% to something closer to the prevailing rate of about 4.5%. His
bank hasn’t budged.
Nutson is semi‐retired and his wife is working full time. They are meeting monthly
payments, but their predicament has clouded their future. If they could reduce their home
payments or sell the house outright, he said, it would give the couple more cash for
spending and even free them up to make a permanent move.
“Who knows where we’ll be, quite frankly,” he said.
Richard K. Green, director of the USC Lusk Center for Real Estate, figures that “the only way
we get out from under as a country is if people have equity again.”
More financing will help, Green said. If that extra cash from a lower rate is used to pay
down principal, a homeowner with a 4.5% rate on a mortgage that’s 20% higher than the
home’s current value could get above water in less than five years, Green said, compared
with 10 years for someone with the same loan at 6%.
Eventually, he and other experts said, the housing market is likely to return to more
balanced patterns, if for no other reason than the natural growth of families and rising
rents that will make owning more attractive. But that still may be a long time away.
“I think without [government] intervention,” Green said, “we’re going to be stuck in this
situation.”
don.lee@latimes.com

New Improving Market Index Highlights Twelve Metro Areas Showing Sustained Economic Recovery

Pittsburgh and New Orleans Among Those Included
September 7, 2011 – Today the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) released its first NAHB/First American Improving Markets Index (IMI), a new economic index revealing metropolitan areas that have shown improvement for at least six months in three key economic areas—housing permits, employment and housing prices.

The list of metropolitan areas includes:

Alexandria, LA
Anchorage, AK
Bangor, ME
Bismarck, ND
Casper, WY
Fairbanks, AK
Fayetteville, NC
Houma, LA
Midland, TX
New Orleans, LA
Pittsburgh, PA
Waco, TX
“Despite the challenging conditions in the national economy and housing sector, there are areas throughout the country where we are seeing pockets of improvement” said Bob Nielsen, chairman of the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) and a home builder from Reno, Nev. “Housing conditions are local, and do not always reflect the national picture. We created this new index to shine a light on those housing markets across the country that have stabilized and have begun to show signs of recovery.”

“By examining key indicators of home prices, employment and housing permits data, we are using a comprehensive, but conservative method in determining which markets are improving,” said NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe. “Last year at this time, there was not a single market that showed improvement using these criteria, and now we can point to 12 examples of growth.”

“It’s not surprising that many of the states represented are energy rich areas,” Crowe continued. “Those are the regions still experiencing relatively strong employment, supporting housing demand.”

The IMI is designed to track housing markets throughout the country that are showing signs of improving economic health. The index measures three sets of independent monthly data to get a mark on the top improving Metropolitan Statistical Areas. The three indicators that are analyzed are employment growth from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, house price appreciation from Freddie Mac, and single-family housing permit growth from the U.S. Census Bureau. A metro area must see improvement in all three areas for at least six months following their respective troughs before being included on the improving markets list. NAHB uses the latest available data from these sources to generate the list of improving markets.

Please visit www.nahb.org/imi for additional data, tables and a list of 2011 future economic release dates.

EDITOR’S NOTE: The NAHB/First American Improving Markets Index (IMI) will be released on the fourth business day of each month at 10:00 a.m. ET, unless that day falls on a Friday, in which case the index will be released the following Monday. A full calendar of 2011 release dates can be found at www.nahb.org/imi.